• A personal note on IGBP and the social sciences

    Humans are an integral component of the Earth system as conceptualised by IGBP. João Morais recalls key milestones in IGBP’s engagement with the social sciences and offers some words of advice for Future Earth.
  • IGBP and Earth observation:
    a co-evolution

    The iconic images of Earth beamed back by the earliest spacecraft helped to galvanise interest in our planet’s environment. The subsequent evolution and development of satellites for Earth observation has been intricately linked with that of IGBP and other global-change research programmes, write Jack Kaye and Cat Downy .

Forecasting plant migration rates: managing uncertainty for risk assessment

Journal of Ecology (2003)
Higgins S I, Clark J S, Nathan R, Hovestadt T, Schurr F, Fragoso J M V, Aguilar M R, Ribbens E and Lavorel S (eds)
Doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2745.2003.00781.x
Vol 91; Issue 3; pp. 341-347

1 Anthropogenic changes in the global climate are shifting the potential ranges of many plant species.
2 Changing climates will allow some species the opportunity to expand their range, others may experience a contraction in their potential range, while the current and future ranges of some species may not overlap. Our capacity to generalize about the threat these range shifts pose to plant diversity is limited by many sources of uncertainty.
3 In this paper we summarize sources of uncertainty for migration forecasts and suggest a research protocol for making forecasts in the context of uncertainty.

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