Climate variability and ecosystem impacts on the North Pacific: a basin-scale synthesis

The Climate Change and Carrying Capacity Program synthesis symposium was sponsored by the North Pacific Marine Science Organization and GLOBEC International. Additional financial support for the symposium was provided by the Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center of the National Marine Fisheries Service of NOAA, the North Pacific Fishery Management Council, the North Pacific Research Board, the Western Pacific Regional Fishery Management Council, the Pelagic Fisheries Research Program, the Korean Ocean Research and Development Institute (KORDI), the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research and U.S. GLOBEC. This special journal issue (15 papers) summarizes the scientific progress and significant findings of the Climate Change and Carrying Capacity (CCCC) integrative Scientific Program of PICES. Through a series of symposia, information on progress in addressing the key CCCC objectives on physical forcing, lower trophic level responses, higher trophic level responses and ecosystem interactions was exchanged among PICES member countries and scientists. Coupling of ecological and physical models was significantly advanced by CCCC, as evidenced by the wide use of and community acceptance of the NEMURO family of models of lower trophic level dynamics. Although significant progress on understanding the impact of climate variability, especially regime shifts, has been made within the CCCC Program, less progress was evident on other original objectives. Foremost among these were the lack of progress towards better documenting and understanding the carrying capacity of the North Pacific for key harvested fish species and an inability (so far) to provide quantitative and skillful forecasts of future ocean ecosystem conditions.