• A personal note on IGBP and the social sciences

    Humans are an integral component of the Earth system as conceptualised by IGBP. João Morais recalls key milestones in IGBP’s engagement with the social sciences and offers some words of advice for Future Earth.
  • IGBP and Earth observation:
    a co-evolution

    The iconic images of Earth beamed back by the earliest spacecraft helped to galvanise interest in our planet’s environment. The subsequent evolution and development of satellites for Earth observation has been intricately linked with that of IGBP and other global-change research programmes, write Jack Kaye and Cat Downy .

An ecosystem approach to predicting cod recruitment

Deep Sea Research II (2007)
Svensen E, Skogen M, Budgell P, Huse G, Stiansen J E, Ådlandsvik B, Vikebø F, Asplin L and Sundby S
Doi: 10.1016/j.dsr2.2007.07.033
Vol 54; Issue 23-26; pp. 2810-2821

The Norwegian Ecological Model (NORWECOM) biophysical model system implemented with the ROMS ocean circulation model has been run to simulate conditions over the last 25 years for the North Atlantic. Modeled time series of water volume fluxes, primary production, and drift of cod larvae through their modeled ambient temperature fields have been analyzed in conjunction with VPA estimated time series of 3-year-old cod recruits in the Barents Sea. Individual time series account for less than 50% of the recruitment variability; however, a combination of simulated flow of Atlantic water into the Barents Sea and local primary production accounts for 70% of the variability with a 3-year lead. The associated regression predicts increased recruitment between 2007 and 2008 from about 450–700 million individuals with a standard error of nearly 150 million.

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