Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

Nature Climate Change (2014)

Raupach M R, Davis S J, Peters G P, Andrew R M, Canadell J G, Ciais P, Friedlingstein P, Jotzo F, van Vuuren DP and Le Qu.r. C

DOIi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2384

Vol 4, pp 873–879

Abstract

Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO2 emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2 °C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions.